Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints33
- Jalen GreenAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints21
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–110
- Q418.1Brice Sensabaugh makes 10-foot pullup jump shot121–110
- Q426.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes 5-foot dunk (Tari Eason assists)121–108
- Q430.1Isaiah Collier bad pass (Tari Eason steals)119–108
- Q433.1Alperen Sengun bad pass (Isaiah Collier steals)119–108
- Q450.1Kyle Filipowski makes two point shot119–108
- Q452.1Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound119–106
- Q454.1Isaiah Collier misses 22-foot three point jumper119–106
- Q41:06Alperen Sengun makes two point shot119–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:28Tari Eason makes driving layupHOU 96 – 90 UTAH · HOU 82% → 88% +6HOU 82% → 88%+6 pts
- Q47:02Johnny Juzang makes 2-foot dunk (Kyle Filipowski assists)HOU 96 – 92 UTAH · UTAH 11% → 18% +6UTAH 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q46:42Alperen Sengun makes 8-foot two point shot (Jalen Green assists)HOU 98 – 92 UTAH · HOU 82% → 89% +6HOU 82% → 89%+6 pts
- Q43:36Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)HOU 105 – 102 UTAH · UTAH 8% → 20% +12UTAH 8% → 20%+12 pts
- Q43:18Amen Thompson makes 10-foot two point shot (Jalen Green assists)HOU 107 – 102 UTAH · HOU 80% → 90% +9HOU 80% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -13.5
- ML HOU -800 / UTAH +500
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10
- HOU 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 82.9%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -533
- UTAH +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 120.0 – 106.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1343 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −56 | HOU: Missing Steven Adams −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Elijah Harkless −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +275 Elo | HOU 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 85.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 85.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 111.921st of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 120.129th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −8.228th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 109.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 117.129th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.6 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 4th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 9–2929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+31 Elo- Steven Adams right wrist injury−4 Elo
Jazz
−56 Elo- Elijah Harkless did not dress−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–34 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–25 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 35–34 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35 | 42–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.