Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints18
- Sam MerrillAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints18
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–91
- Q414.0shot clock turnover120–91
- Q435.2Sam Merrill defensive rebound120–91
- Q439.1Walker Kessler misses 25-foot three point jumper120–91
- Q456.1Tristan Thompson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Sam Merrill assists)120–91
- Q41:08Isaiah Collier makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Keyonte George assists)118–91
- Q41:22Isaiah Collier defensive rebound118–89
- Q41:24Sam Merrill misses 23-foot three point jumper118–89
- Q41:31Jazz Full timeout118–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:39Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)CLE 34 – 33 UTAH · UTAH 9% → 13% +4UTAH 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q23:23Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)CLE 40 – 41 UTAH · UTAH 13% → 18% +5UTAH 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q23:08Jarrett Allen makes 6-foot hook shot (Max Strus assists)CLE 42 – 41 UTAH · CLE 82% → 85% +3CLE 82% → 85%+3 pts
- Q22:18Kyle Filipowski makes 2-foot two point shot (Walker Kessler assists)CLE 42 – 43 UTAH · UTAH 15% → 18% +4UTAH 15% → 18%+4 pts
- Q22:04Donovan Mitchell makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 44 – 43 UTAH · CLE 81% → 85% +4CLE 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -16.5
- ML CLE -1800 / UTAH +900
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -12
- CLE 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 87.5%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -947
- UTAH +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 128.5 – 112.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1654 | 1361 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −40 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +339 Elo | CLE 87.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 88.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 88.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.3 | Points scored | 112.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 119.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.1 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 109.424th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–9 | Road vs home | 9–2729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–27 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–25 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders | 45–25 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–0 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.