Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints27
- Kristaps PorzingisAssists6
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds10
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints30
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–99
- Q43.0shot clock turnover121–99
- Q429.0JD Davison defensive rebound121–99
- Q429.0Collin Sexton misses 24-foot three point jumper121–99
- Q441.1Jordan Walsh makes 3-foot dunk (Neemias Queta assists)121–99
- Q441.1Neemias Queta offensive rebound119–99
- Q445.0JD Davison misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot119–99
- Q457.1Micah Potter lost ball turnover (Drew Peterson steals)119–99
- Q41:17Jordan Walsh makes dunk119–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:14Al Horford makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 65 – 57 UTAH · BOS 88% → 92% +4BOS 88% → 92%+4 pts
- Q39:26Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Walker Kessler assists)BOS 65 – 60 UTAH · UTAH 8% → 12% +4UTAH 8% → 12%+4 pts
- Q37:47Collin Sexton makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotBOS 69 – 65 UTAH · UTAH 9% → 14% +5UTAH 9% → 14%+5 pts
- Q36:29Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)BOS 71 – 69 UTAH · UTAH 12% → 18% +6UTAH 12% → 18%+6 pts
- Q36:10Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 74 – 69 UTAH · BOS 81% → 87% +6BOS 81% → 87%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -15.5
- ML BOS -1200 / UTAH +700
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11.5
- BOS 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 86.2%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -738
- UTAH +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.5 – 106.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1692 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | −42 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Elijah Harkless −2, Jaden Springer −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +318 Elo | BOS 86.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 88.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 88.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 112.520th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 119.828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.4 | Margin | −7.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 109.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 116.629th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.15th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–7 | Road vs home | 9–2629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−42 Elo- Elijah Harkless did not dress−2 Elo
- Jaden Springer lower back injury−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–38 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–36 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders | 31–38 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.