Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- D'Angelo RussellPoints18
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints25
- Jrue HolidayAssists8
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–104
- Q49.0Kristaps Porzingis defensive rebound96–104
- Q412.0D'Angelo Russell misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot96–104
- Q417.1Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 2 of 296–104
- Q417.1Celtics offensive team rebound96–103
- Q417.1Kristaps Porzingis misses free throw 1 of 296–103
- Q417.1(00:17.7) [Nets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Nets] charged with a timeout96–103
- Q417.1Nets Full timeout96–103
- Q417.1Ziaire Williams personal foul96–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.1Baylor Scheierman makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BKN 70 – 71 BOS · BOS 62% → 74% +11BOS 62% → 74%+11 pts
- Q410:15Baylor Scheierman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BKN 74 – 78 BOS · BOS 73% → 83% +10BOS 73% → 83%+10 pts
- Q47:42Tyrese Martin makes driving layup (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 80 – 78 BOS · BKN 34% → 44% +10BKN 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q47:08Baylor Scheierman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BKN 80 – 81 BOS · BOS 55% → 71% +15BOS 55% → 71%+15 pts
- Q46:37Baylor Scheierman makes 32-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 80 – 84 BOS · BOS 70% → 83% +13BOS 70% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML BKN +550 / BOS -900
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10
- BOS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 83.5%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -585
- BKN +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 99.0 – 112.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1689 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −67 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +281 Elo | BOS 83.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 86.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 86.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 116.67th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 108.23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.0 | Margin | +8.43rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 109.35th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.5 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–23 | Road vs home | 23–1210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−1 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−17 Elo
Celtics
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–31 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 33–25 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–38 | 31–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–7 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.