Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds15
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints28
- Cameron JohnsonAssists7
- Keon JohnsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–122
- Q410.1Trae Young bad pass (Tyrese Martin steals)114–122
- Q413.2Hawks offensive team rebound114–122
- Q416.1Keon Johnson blocks Dyson Daniels 's 2-foot tip shot114–122
- Q416.1Dyson Daniels offensive rebound114–122
- Q417.1Trae Young misses two point shot114–122
- Q423.1Hawks Full timeout114–122
- Q423.18 second turnover114–122
- Q431.1Keon Johnson defensive rebound114–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:27Maxwell Lewis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)ATL 98 – 102 BKN · BKN 47% → 62% +15BKN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q45:07Trae Young makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 106 – 111 BKN · ATL 13% → 26% +13ATL 13% → 26%+13 pts
- Q43:42Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)ATL 108 – 114 BKN · BKN 67% → 84% +17BKN 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q42:29Trae Young makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 112 – 115 BKN · ATL 15% → 28% +13ATL 15% → 28%+13 pts
- Q42:18Cameron Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)ATL 112 – 118 BKN · BKN 73% → 91% +18BKN 73% → 91%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -6.5
- ML ATL -230 / BKN +195
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.1%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -206
- BKN +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.5 – 111.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | +4 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −20, Caris LeVert −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +64 Elo | ATL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 105.429th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 111.611th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.5 | Margin | −6.326th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 107.627th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 97.529th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 10–2227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−15 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−20 Elo
- Caris LeVert right knee soreness−15 Elo
Nets
+4 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–35 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–28 | 29–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.