Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints24
- Jrue HolidayAssists12
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints23
- D'Angelo RussellAssists8
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–113
- Q42.2D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound115–113
- Q42.2Payton Pritchard misses free throw 2 of 2115–113
- Q42.2Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2115–113
- Q42.2Keon Johnson personal take foul114–113
- Q44.1Cameron Johnson makes 29-foot three pointer (D'Angelo Russell assists)114–113
- Q48.2Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2114–110
- Q48.2Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2113–110
- Q48.2Keon Johnson personal foul112–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:21Jalen Wilson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)BOS 90 – 86 BKN · BKN 11% → 19% +8BKN 11% → 19%+8 pts
- Q48:43Maxwell Lewis makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Wilson assists)BOS 92 – 89 BKN · BKN 13% → 22% +9BKN 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q47:59Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BOS 94 – 92 BKN · BKN 16% → 26% +11BKN 16% → 26%+11 pts
- Q47:39Kristaps Porzingis makes driving layup (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 96 – 92 BKN · BOS 73% → 81% +8BOS 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q44.1Cameron Johnson makes 29-foot three pointer (D'Angelo Russell assists)BOS 114 – 113 BKN · BKN <1% → 8% +8BKN <1% → 8%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML BOS -650 / BKN +425
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 81.8%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -455
- BKN +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.0 – 103.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1688 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | 0 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −27, Trendon Watford −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +261 Elo | BOS 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 85.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 105.329th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 111.69th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.5 | Margin | −6.326th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 107.327th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 113.722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3025–7 | Road vs home | 10–2127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
0 Elo- Cam Thomas strained left hamstring−27 Elo
- Trendon Watford left hamstring−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–36 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders | 30–37 | 28–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–0 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.