Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Colby JonesPoints24
- AJ JohnsonAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds9
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints21
- Isaiah CollierAssists6
- Oscar TshiebweRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–128
- Q418.0Tristan Vukcevic makes 3-foot layup (AJ Johnson assists)112–128
- Q419.1Kyle Filipowski personal foul110–128
- Q434.1Keyonte George makes 24-foot three pointer110–128
- Q452.0Keyonte George defensive rebound110–125
- Q455.1Tristan Vukcevic misses 25-foot three point jumper110–125
- Q41:04Kyle Filipowski makes tip shot110–125
- Q41:04Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound110–123
- Q41:07Cody Williams misses 22-foot three point jumper110–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q249.0Alex Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 63 – 59 UTAH · WSH 48% → 56% +9WSH 48% → 56%+9 pts
- Q20.1Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)WSH 63 – 64 UTAH · UTAH 49% → 58% +9UTAH 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q311:24Kyle Filipowski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)WSH 65 – 67 UTAH · UTAH 52% → 61% +9UTAH 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q32:59Anthony Gill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Colby Jones assists)WSH 84 – 89 UTAH · WSH 20% → 28% +9WSH 20% → 28%+9 pts
- Q356.1Keyonte George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Oscar Tshiebwe assists)WSH 88 – 96 UTAH · UTAH 73% → 82% +9UTAH 73% → 82%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -2.5
- ML WSH +125 / UTAH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -0.5
- UTAH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- UTAH: Elo 47.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 116.5 – 119.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1350 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +67 | −36 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | WSH +20 Elo | WSH 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 112.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 119.929th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.8 | Margin | −7.627th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.0 | Offense rating | 109.324th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 102.15th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–26 | Road vs home | 8–2629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–37 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 30–36 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34 | 40–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.