Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints19
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds15
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints32
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Tari EasonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–121
- Q41.0Tari Eason defensive rebound114–121
- Q42.1Terance Mann misses 23-foot pullup jump shot114–121
- Q48.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 2114–121
- Q48.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2114–120
- Q48.1Dyson Daniels personal take foul114–119
- Q410.1Rockets defensive team rebound114–119
- Q412.1Georges Niang misses 22-foot three point jumper114–119
- Q414.1Hawks Full timeout114–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:14Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)ATL 16 – 14 HOU · HOU 58% → 65% +7HOU 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q11:31Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 21 – 20 HOU · ATL 28% → 34% +6ATL 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q47:20Terance Mann makes 8-foot two point shotATL 94 – 98 HOU · ATL 16% → 23% +7ATL 16% → 23%+7 pts
- Q47:02Jalen Green makes 4-foot two point shotATL 94 – 100 HOU · HOU 77% → 85% +7HOU 77% → 85%+7 pts
- Q45:50Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)ATL 97 – 105 HOU · HOU 83% → 92% +9HOU 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML ATL +225 / HOU -280
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 68.0%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -239
- ATL +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.0 – 121.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +15 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +131 Elo | HOU 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 113.517th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 109.15th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +4.45th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 112.216th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.7 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 26–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+18 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−13 Elo
Rockets
+15 Elo- Amen Thompson left ankle injury−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–36 | 39–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 28–24 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 43–28 | 38–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.