Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints31
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Hornets- DaQuan JeffriesPoints19
- Damion BaughAssists5
- Damion BaughRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–102
- Q417.1Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound134–102
- Q420.1Nick Smith Jr. misses 9-foot pullup jump shot134–102
- Q422.1Wendell Moore Jr. offensive rebound134–102
- Q425.0DaQuan Jeffries misses 23-foot three point jumper134–102
- Q440.0Vit Krejci makes free throw 2 of 2134–102
- Q440.0Vit Krejci makes free throw 1 of 2133–102
- Q440.0Seth Curry shooting foul132–102
- Q447.2Seth Curry makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Damion Baugh assists)132–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:05Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 37 – 31 CHA · ATL 77% → 82% +5ATL 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q24:50Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 52 – 44 CHA · ATL 80% → 85% +5ATL 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q24:19Trae Young makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 55 – 46 CHA · ATL 82% → 87% +5ATL 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q23:42Seth Curry makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Nick Smith Jr. assists)ATL 55 – 51 CHA · CHA 17% → 22% +6CHA 17% → 22%+6 pts
- Q23:26Vit Krejci makes 23-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 58 – 51 CHA · ATL 78% → 83% +6ATL 78% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -7.5
- ML ATL -340 / CHA +270
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 73.8%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -286
- CHA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.5 – 112.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1278 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | −38 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −19, Caris LeVert −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | CHA crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +180 Elo | ATL 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 105.728th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 113.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.6 | Margin | −7.728th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 105.529th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 10–2428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−16 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−19 Elo
- Caris LeVert right knee soreness−15 Elo
Hornets
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–36 | 33–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders | 40–28 | 24–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–3 CHA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.