Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints26
- Quentin GrimesAssists6
- Chuma OkekeRebounds8
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Dominick BarlowRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–132
- Q415.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 15-foot pullup jump shot119–132
- Q422.0shot clock turnover117–132
- Q446.0Hawks defensive team rebound117–132
- Q447.2Jared Butler misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot117–132
- Q454.0Chuma Okeke defensive rebound117–132
- Q456.1Dyson Daniels misses two point shot117–132
- Q41:14Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1117–132
- Q41:14Vit Krejci enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu116–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:59Guerschon Yabusele makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeff Dowtin Jr. assists)PHI 6 – 7 ATL · PHI 16% → 20% +4PHI 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q18:23Trae Young makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 8 – 10 ATL · ATL 77% → 81% +5ATL 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q15:56Justin Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)PHI 14 – 14 ATL · PHI 18% → 22% +5PHI 18% → 22%+5 pts
- Q14:57Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point shot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)PHI 14 – 19 ATL · ATL 81% → 85% +4ATL 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q38:54Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)PHI 60 – 71 ATL · ATL 88% → 92% +4ATL 88% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -10.5
- ML PHI +360 / ATL -500
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 73.9%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -383
- PHI +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.0 – 125.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −71 | +13 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −40, Adem Bona −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +180 Elo | ATL 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 76.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 76.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 117.45th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 119.326th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.4 | Margin | −1.920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 111.520th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.9 | Pace | 104.72nd of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–25 | Road vs home | 18–1719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−71 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back sprain−40 Elo
- Adem Bona left ankle sprain−3 Elo
Hawks
+13 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–44 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 20–26 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 42–28 | 42–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.