Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Justin EdwardsPoints25
- Quentin GrimesAssists10
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds9
Spurs- Jeremy SochanPoints23
- Stephon CastleAssists14
- Jeremy SochanRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–128
- Q413.1Quentin Grimes out of bounds lost ball turnover120–128
- Q419.1Stephon Castle makes driving layup (Harrison Barnes assists)120–128
- Q422.1Spurs Full timeout120–126
- Q427.1Jared Butler bad pass (Stephon Castle steals)120–126
- Q430.176ers Full timeout120–126
- Q430.1Devin Vassell makes free throw 2 of 2120–126
- Q430.1Devin Vassell makes free throw 1 of 2120–125
- Q430.1Jared Butler personal foul120–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:32Chuma Okeke makes 26-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)PHI 117 – 111 SA · PHI 63% → 78% +16PHI 63% → 78%+16 pts
- Q43:31Harrison Barnes makes two point shot (Stephon Castle assists)PHI 117 – 117 SA · SA 39% → 54% +15SA 39% → 54%+15 pts
- Q43:14Jeremy Sochan makes dunk (Keldon Johnson assists)PHI 117 – 119 SA · SA 54% → 69% +15SA 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q41:16Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)PHI 120 – 121 SA · PHI 9% → 35% +26PHI 9% → 35%+26 pts
- Q453.0Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)PHI 120 – 124 SA · SA 67% → 94% +27SA 67% → 94%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML PHI +180 / SA -215
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- SA: Elo 70.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SA -191
- PHI +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.5 – 120.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −103 | −42 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −48, Adem Bona −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +147 Elo | SA 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 116.523rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.4 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–24 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−103 Elo- Tyrese Maxey low back strain−48 Elo
- Adem Bona left ankle sprain−6 Elo
Spurs
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–43 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Overs–unders | 41–28 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.