New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints32
- Mikal BridgesAssists7
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds11
Spurs- Sandro MamukelashviliPoints34
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–120
- Q43.1Blake Wesley enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili105–120
- Q43.1shot clock turnover105–120
- Q428.0Cameron Payne makes 3-foot two point shot (Delon Wright assists)105–120
- Q438.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes dunk (Chris Paul assists)103–120
- Q41:00Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyler Kolek assists)103–118
- Q41:12Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)100–118
- Q41:26Tyler Kolek makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Cameron Payne assists)100–115
- Q41:47Devin Vassell makes free throw 2 of 298–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:26OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 65 – 73 SA · NY 31% → 40% +9NY 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q47:29Cameron Payne makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (OG Anunoby assists)NY 85 – 93 SA · NY 12% → 21% +10NY 12% → 21%+10 pts
- Q47:07Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)NY 85 – 96 SA · SA 80% → 89% +10SA 80% → 89%+10 pts
- Q46:51OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)NY 88 – 96 SA · NY 10% → 20% +9NY 10% → 20%+9 pts
- Q46:26Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)NY 88 – 99 SA · SA 81% → 91% +9SA 81% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML NY -360 / SA +280
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6
- NY 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NY: Elo 72.8%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -297
- SA +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 118.0 – 109.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | −48 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +171 Elo | NY 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 75.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 75.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 114.115th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 116.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −2.521st of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 112.414th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 17–1619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–36 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–28 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 18–26 |
| Overs–unders | 37–30 | 39–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–1 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.