Philadelphia 76ers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints28
- Quentin GrimesAssists5
- Chuma OkekeRebounds15
Thunder- Aaron WigginsPoints26
- Jaylin WilliamsAssists11
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–133
- Q40.2shot clock turnover100–133
- Q425.1Ricky Council IV lost ball turnover (Branden Carlson steals)100–133
- Q430.2Alex Reese defensive rebound100–133
- Q432.1Alex Ducas misses driving layup100–133
- Q448.1Jaylin Williams defensive rebound100–133
- Q450.0Ricky Council IV misses free throw 2 of 2100–133
- Q450.0Ricky Council IV makes free throw 1 of 2100–133
- Q450.0Jaylin Williams shooting foul99–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:46Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dillon Jones assists)PHI 0 – 3 OKC · OKC 82% → 86% +4OKC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q24:39Jalen Hood-Schifino makes 26-foot three pointer (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 46 – 52 OKC · PHI 9% → 13% +4PHI 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q24:07Alex Ducas makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)PHI 46 – 55 OKC · OKC 87% → 91% +4OKC 87% → 91%+4 pts
- Q23:50Guerschon Yabusele makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Hood-Schifino assists)PHI 49 – 55 OKC · PHI 9% → 13% +4PHI 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q21:46Quentin Grimes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ricky Council IV assists)PHI 54 – 62 OKC · PHI 7% → 11% +3PHI 7% → 11%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML PHI +425 / OKC -650
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -13.5
- OKC 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 89.6%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -455
- PHI +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 108.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1744 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −76 | −103 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −45 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +374 Elo | OKC 89.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 89.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 89.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 107.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.0 | Margin | +12.01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 116.95th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 105.11st of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–23 | Road vs home | 28–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−76 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back sprain−45 Elo
Thunder
−103 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–42 | 44–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 42–24 |
| Underdog | 20–24 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 40–28 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.