Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints25
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–124
- Q419.1Moses Moody makes dunk (Draymond Green assists)115–124
- Q425.1Trae Young makes 5-foot two point shot113–124
- Q443.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound113–122
- Q446.0Moses Moody misses driving layup113–122
- Q449.1Quinten Post enters the game for Gary Payton II113–122
- Q449.1Buddy Hield enters the game for Brandin Podziemski113–122
- Q449.1Warriors Full timeout113–122
- Q449.1Zaccharie Risacher makes free throw 2 of 2113–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:44Quinten Post makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 60 – 69 ATL · GS 22% → 29% +7GS 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q310:56Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotGS 63 – 69 ATL · GS 28% → 37% +8GS 28% → 37%+8 pts
- Q39:33Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)GS 63 – 74 ATL · ATL 70% → 77% +8ATL 70% → 77%+8 pts
- Q36:57Quinten Post makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 69 – 77 ATL · GS 21% → 29% +8GS 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q36:07Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)GS 72 – 82 ATL · ATL 69% → 77% +8ATL 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML GS -140 / ATL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- GS: Elo 58.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -128
- ATL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 118.0 – 115.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +7 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | GS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +58 Elo | GS 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 117.35th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 119.427th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −2.120th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 111.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 104.82nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 17–1721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+7 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–34 | 33–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–24 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 35–35 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.