Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints29
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Warriors- Draymond GreenPoints21
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists12
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–117
- Q41.1Jamal Shead defensive rebound114–117
- Q42.0Jimmy Butler III misses free throw 2 of 2114–117
- Q42.0Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 1 of 2114–117
- Q42.0Jamal Shead personal take foul114–116
- Q44.1Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)114–116
- Q46.1Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Buddy Hield111–116
- Q46.1Raptors Full timeout111–116
- Q46.1Buddy Hield makes free throw 2 of 2111–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:16Quinten Post makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)TOR 92 – 88 GS · GS 45% → 57% +12GS 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q410:00Scottie Barnes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 98 – 98 GS · TOR 20% → 31% +11TOR 20% → 31%+11 pts
- Q48:40Quinten Post makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)TOR 102 – 104 GS · GS 63% → 76% +13GS 63% → 76%+13 pts
- Q47:31Jamison Battle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 105 – 104 GS · TOR 24% → 38% +14TOR 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q46:03Kevon Looney makes tip shotTOR 105 – 106 GS · GS 60% → 70% +11GS 60% → 70%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -14.5
- ML TOR +600 / GS -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- GS: Elo 81.6%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -636
- TOR +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 105.0 – 119.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +58 | TOR: Usual rotation · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +259 Elo | GS 81.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 87.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 86.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 113.318th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 110.77th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.1 | Margin | +2.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 112.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 109.67th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 308–25 | Road vs home | 22–1413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–27 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 36–23 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.