Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints21
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists10
- Zach EdeyRebounds7
Jazz- Isaiah CollierPoints21
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–103
- Q413.1shot clock turnover140–103
- Q438.1Isaiah Collier makes 25-foot three pointer140–103
- Q451.0Oscar Tshiebwe defensive rebound140–100
- Q455.1Jay Huff misses 24-foot three point jumper140–100
- Q41:12Jay Huff defensive rebound140–100
- Q41:17Isaiah Collier misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot140–100
- Q41:29Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three pointer140–100
- Q41:39John Konchar defensive rebound137–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:48Johnny Juzang makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)MEM 45 – 54 UTAH · UTAH 38% → 45% +8UTAH 38% → 45%+8 pts
- Q26:27Johnny Juzang makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)MEM 45 – 57 UTAH · UTAH 46% → 54% +8UTAH 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q24:17Jay Huff makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 50 – 61 UTAH · MEM 39% → 47% +8MEM 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q245.0Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 62 – 63 UTAH · MEM 63% → 71% +8MEM 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q311:26Santi Aldama makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 67 – 67 UTAH · MEM 65% → 73% +8MEM 65% → 73%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -11.5
- ML MEM -550 / UTAH +400
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5
- MEM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 69.2%, market 80.9%
- Fair odds
- MEM -423
- UTAH +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 126.0 – 114.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1357 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −37 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +141 Elo | MEM 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 74.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 80.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.1 | Points scored | 112.020th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 119.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −7.827th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 109.124th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 9–2829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–34 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 10–14 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders | 42–29 | 41–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 4–2 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.