Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points23
- Santi AldamaAssists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds8
Clippers- James HardenPoints30
- James HardenAssists9
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–128
- Q43.0shot clock turnover108–128
- Q422.1Drew Eubanks defensive rebound108–128
- Q424.1Marvin Bagley III misses 27-foot three point jumper108–128
- Q430.1Vince Williams Jr. offensive rebound108–128
- Q432.1Jay Huff misses 23-foot three point jumper108–128
- Q445.0Jay Huff defensive rebound108–128
- Q447.0Drew Eubanks misses free throw 2 of 2108–128
- Q447.0Kobe Brown enters the game for James Harden108–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:41Santi Aldama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)MEM 59 – 53 LAC · MEM 44% → 53% +8MEM 44% → 53%+8 pts
- Q21:07Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 62 – 55 LAC · MEM 47% → 56% +9MEM 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q311:27Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 69 – 62 LAC · MEM 48% → 57% +9MEM 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q311:07Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)MEM 69 – 65 LAC · LAC 43% → 52% +9LAC 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q39:47Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)MEM 69 – 72 LAC · LAC 63% → 71% +8LAC 63% → 71%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -6.5
- ML MEM +210 / LAC -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 69.5%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -221
- MEM +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.0 – 118.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +53 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +143 Elo | LAC 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 69.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.3 | Points scored | 111.721st of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 108.64th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +3.19th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 112.118th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 108.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 24–106th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–33 | 38–31 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 21–16 |
| Underdog | 10–13 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–29 | 32–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–5 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.