Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints27
- Dennis SchroderAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints26
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds25
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–123
- Q421.1Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lindy Waters III assists)104–123
- Q432.1Josh Minott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Garza assists)101–123
- Q446.1Daniss Jenkins makes 1-foot two point shot101–120
- Q453.0Paul Reed defensive rebound99–120
- Q455.1Rob Dillingham misses two point shot99–120
- Q41:10Daniss Jenkins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot99–120
- Q41:27Luka Garza makes 6-foot two point shot96–120
- Q41:50Paul Reed out of bounds bad pass turnover96–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:40Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)DET 42 – 34 MIN · DET 42% → 50% +8DET 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q26:45Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)DET 46 – 34 MIN · DET 53% → 60% +8DET 53% → 60%+8 pts
- Q310:18Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerDET 63 – 61 MIN · MIN 52% → 61% +9MIN 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q38:45Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)DET 67 – 69 MIN · MIN 64% → 72% +8MIN 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q37:49Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)DET 69 – 72 MIN · MIN 66% → 74% +8MIN 66% → 74%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML DET +270 / MIN -340
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -286
- DET +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.0 – 116.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +39 | DET: Missing Tobias Harris −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +143 Elo | MIN 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 113.717th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 109.36th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +4.46th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 113.910th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 22–1614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+3 Elo- Tobias Harris right achilles tendinitis−12 Elo
Timberwolves
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–32 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 25–14 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.