New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints40
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlAssists8
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds11
Pistons- Ronald Holland IIPoints26
- Ronald Holland IIAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–136
- Q42.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2130–136
- Q42.1Pistons offensive team rebound130–135
- Q42.1Dennis Schroder misses free throw 1 of 2130–135
- Q42.1Jose Alvarado personal take foul130–135
- Q43.1CJ McCollum makes driving layup130–135
- Q49.2Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2128–135
- Q49.2Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2128–134
- Q49.2Jose Alvarado personal take foul128–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:47Keion Brooks Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)NO 103 – 103 DET · NO 22% → 34% +12NO 22% → 34%+12 pts
- Q47:42CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointer (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 108 – 108 DET · NO 22% → 35% +13NO 22% → 35%+13 pts
- Q43:36Ronald Holland II makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)NO 112 – 118 DET · DET 80% → 92% +12DET 80% → 92%+12 pts
- Q43:17Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)NO 115 – 118 DET · NO 7% → 20% +12NO 7% → 20%+12 pts
- Q42:43Marcus Sasser makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)NO 115 – 121 DET · DET 81% → 94% +13DET 81% → 94%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -11.5
- ML NO +475 / DET -750
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -11
- DET 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- DET: Elo 85.0%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -507
- NO +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 107.0 – 118.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −85 | +18 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −47 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | NO crossed 1 time zone and DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +301 Elo | DET 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 81.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 115.111th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 112.914th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 112.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–29 | Road vs home | 18–1618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+18 Elo- Cade Cunningham calf soreness−47 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–42 | 40–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 22–33 | 24–14 |
| Overs–unders | 40–31 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.