New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints15
- Kelly OlynykAssists4
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints20
- Naz ReidAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–134
- Q44.1shot clock turnover93–134
- Q428.1Antonio Reeves makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Karlo Matkovic assists)93–134
- Q441.1Luka Garza makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)91–134
- Q454.0Keion Brooks Jr. turnover91–131
- Q454.0Keion Brooks Jr. offensive foul91–131
- Q41:06Rob Dillingham makes 1-foot dunk (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)91–131
- Q41:09Elfrid Payton bad pass (Josh Minott steals)91–129
- Q41:12Keion Brooks Jr. defensive rebound91–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:14Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)NO 20 – 22 MIN · MIN 82% → 86% +4MIN 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q141.1Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NO 22 – 25 MIN · MIN 83% → 87% +4MIN 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q210:20Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 29 – 30 MIN · NO 12% → 16% +4NO 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q29:25Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)NO 34 – 30 MIN · NO 20% → 25% +6NO 20% → 25%+6 pts
- Q28:21Jaylen Clark makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)NO 34 – 33 MIN · MIN 74% → 80% +6MIN 74% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -14.5
- ML NO +600 / MIN -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -15
- MIN 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 91.8%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -636
- NO +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 104.5 – 119.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −86 | +34 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +420 Elo | MIN 91.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 88.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 88.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 113.417th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 109.46th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.5 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 113.610th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.222nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 29th of 307–28 | Road vs home | 20–1614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–41 | 32–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 22–32 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 39–31 | 40–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.