Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints35
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Mavericks- Spencer DinwiddiePoints31
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Naji MarshallRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–123
- Q41.1Cade Cunningham bad pass (P.J. Washington steals)117–123
- Q44.1Pistons Full timeout117–123
- Q44.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2117–123
- Q44.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2117–122
- Q44.1Tobias Harris personal foul117–121
- Q410.1Cade Cunningham makes 1-foot two point shot117–121
- Q416.2Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 1115–121
- Q416.2Jalen Duren shooting foul115–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:35Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 94 – 99 DAL · DET 25% → 38% +13DET 25% → 38%+13 pts
- Q47:46Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DET 96 – 102 DAL · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q45:23P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DET 98 – 105 DAL · DAL 65% → 80% +15DAL 65% → 80%+15 pts
- Q42:49Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 106 – 109 DAL · DET 13% → 32% +19DET 13% → 32%+19 pts
- Q41:48Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)DET 110 – 114 DAL · DET 4% → 17% +13DET 4% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML DET -400 / DAL +300
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4.5
- DET 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- DET: Elo 66.6%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -320
- DAL +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 121.0 – 111.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | −33 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +120 Elo | DET 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 114.912th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 115.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 113.311th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 113.822nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 19–1615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–30 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 16–16 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 24–14 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 35–35 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.