Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints26
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists12
- Kai JonesRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints29
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–135
- Q40.1Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound131–135
- Q44.0P.J. Washington misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot131–135
- Q48.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 2 of 2131–135
- Q48.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 2131–134
- Q48.1Jaden Hardy personal take foul131–133
- Q49.0Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 2131–133
- Q49.0Myles Turner enters the game for Ben Sheppard130–133
- Q49.0Mavericks offensive team rebound130–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:48Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)DAL 113 – 109 IND · IND 19% → 35% +16IND 19% → 35%+16 pts
- Q43:14Bennedict Mathurin makes 9-foot two point shotDAL 117 – 115 IND · IND 28% → 43% +15IND 28% → 43%+15 pts
- Q42:59P.J. Washington makes 1-foot driving dunkDAL 119 – 115 IND · DAL 58% → 73% +15DAL 58% → 73%+15 pts
- Q41:40Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 125 – 119 IND · DAL 75% → 94% +18DAL 75% → 94%+18 pts
- Q416.0Andrew Nembhard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)DAL 130 – 131 IND · IND 9% → 78% +69IND 9% → 78%+69 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -10.5
- ML DAL +380 / IND -550
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6.5
- IND 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- IND: Elo 74.5%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -406
- DAL +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 108.5 – 119.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −101 | −36 | DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −39, Dereck Lively II −30, Klay Thompson −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +186 Elo | IND 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 116.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 115.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 114.49th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 20–97th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−101 Elo- Daniel Gafford right knee injury−39 Elo
- Dereck Lively II right ankle injury−30 Elo
- Klay Thompson injury/illness−11 Elo
Pacers
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–36 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 18–23 |
| Underdog | 19–20 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–33 | 36–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–3 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.