Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints38
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds6
Pistons- Tim Hardaway Jr.Points32
- Dennis SchroderAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–133
- Q44.2Tim Hardaway Jr. bad pass (Sam Merrill steals)122–133
- Q430.2Tristan Thompson makes driving layup122–133
- Q443.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2120–133
- Q443.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2120–132
- Q443.1Craig Porter Jr. personal foul120–131
- Q41:02Isaac Okoro makes free throw 2 of 2120–131
- Q41:02Isaac Okoro makes free throw 1 of 2119–131
- Q41:02Tim Hardaway Jr. shooting foul118–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:19Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point jumperCLE 61 – 64 DET · CLE 46% → 54% +9CLE 46% → 54%+9 pts
- Q44:54Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 109 – 116 DET · CLE 7% → 16% +9CLE 7% → 16%+9 pts
- Q44:36Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)CLE 109 – 119 DET · DET 85% → 94% +9DET 85% → 94%+9 pts
- Q44:25Donovan Mitchell makes 29-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 112 – 119 DET · CLE 6% → 15% +9CLE 6% → 15%+9 pts
- Q43:31Donovan Mitchell makes 32-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 117 – 119 DET · CLE 20% → 40% +20CLE 20% → 40%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML CLE -250 / DET +205
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.1%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -218
- DET +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 120.0 – 113.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1670 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | −1 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Tobias Harris −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +86 Elo | CLE 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.3 | Points scored | 115.411th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 112.914th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.4 | Margin | +2.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 112.914th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 110.49th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.58th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–9 | Road vs home | 20–1615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−1 Elo- Tobias Harris right achilles tendinitis−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–28 | 41–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–26 | 17–18 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 24–14 |
| Overs–unders | 47–26 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–0 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.