San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints26
- Stephon CastleAssists4
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds7
Pistons- Marcus SasserPoints27
- Jalen DurenAssists7
- Tobias HarrisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–122
- Q40.2Marcus Sasser bad pass (Blake Wesley steals)96–122
- Q425.1Malaki Branham makes 1-foot dunk (Jordan McLaughlin assists)96–122
- Q434.1Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three pointer94–122
- Q455.1Blake Wesley out of bounds bad pass turnover94–119
- Q41:00Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound94–119
- Q41:03Blake Wesley misses 26-foot three point jumper94–119
- Q41:20Marcus Sasser makes driving layup94–119
- Q41:37Ronald Holland II defensive rebound94–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:21Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 9 – 9 DET · SA 20% → 25% +5SA 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q16:58Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 12 – 11 DET · SA 22% → 27% +5SA 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q14:15Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)SA 14 – 18 DET · DET 75% → 81% +5DET 75% → 81%+5 pts
- Q13:01Blake Wesley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 19 – 20 DET · SA 20% → 25% +5SA 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q12:06Marcus Sasser makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)SA 21 – 25 DET · DET 75% → 80% +5DET 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML SA +290 / DET -380
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5
- DET 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- DET: Elo 69.0%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -309
- SA +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.0 – 121.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +5 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −43 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +139 Elo | DET 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 75.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 74.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 115.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 113.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +2.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 110.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 19–1616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+5 Elo- Cade Cunningham left calf contusion−43 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–38 | 40–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 20–26 | 24–14 |
| Overs–unders | 40–30 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.