San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints25
- Chris PaulAssists6
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds9
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints22
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Jonathan MogboRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–89
- Q420.1Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound123–89
- Q422.0Ja'Kobe Walter misses 8-foot two point shot123–89
- Q437.0Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 2 of 2123–89
- Q437.0Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 1 of 2122–89
- Q437.0Orlando Robinson personal foul121–89
- Q446.2Spurs defensive team rebound121–89
- Q447.1Jamison Battle misses 25-foot three point jumper121–89
- Q457.2Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 2 of 2121–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)SA 3 – 0 TOR · SA 50% → 56% +6SA 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q18:27RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)SA 6 – 7 TOR · TOR 46% → 52% +6TOR 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q17:11Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)SA 11 – 7 TOR · SA 52% → 59% +7SA 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q16:55Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ochai Agbaji assists)SA 11 – 10 TOR · TOR 41% → 48% +7TOR 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q16:26Devin Vassell makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Chris Paul assists)SA 14 – 10 TOR · SA 52% → 59% +7SA 52% → 59%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -0.5
- ML SA -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 46.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- SA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 116.0 – 116.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | −38 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −27, Immanuel Quickley −27, Chris Boucher −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −36 | SA crossed 1 time zone and TOR crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +26 Elo | SA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 110.723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 115.820th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.1 | Margin | −5.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 108.526th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–22 | Road vs home | 16–2022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−38 Elo- Jakob Poeltl rest−27 Elo
- Immanuel Quickley rest−27 Elo
- Chris Boucher not with team−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–38 | 43–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 19–26 | 37–23 |
| Overs–unders | 40–29 | 36–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.