San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints22
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Stephon CastleRebounds11
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints29
- Donovan MitchellAssists14
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–124
- Q49.1Keldon Johnson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Stephon Castle assists)116–124
- Q416.1Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2114–124
- Q416.1Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2114–123
- Q416.1Keldon Johnson personal foul114–122
- Q416.1Jarrett Allen defensive rebound114–122
- Q417.0Stephon Castle misses 28-foot three point jumper114–122
- Q420.1Spurs Full timeout114–122
- Q420.1Darius Garland makes 3-foot two point shot (Max Strus assists)114–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:17Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)SA 93 – 92 CLE · CLE 50% → 64% +14CLE 50% → 64%+14 pts
- Q48:02Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)SA 97 – 97 CLE · CLE 53% → 67% +15CLE 53% → 67%+15 pts
- Q46:25Stephon Castle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 104 – 102 CLE · SA 29% → 45% +16SA 29% → 45%+16 pts
- Q46:06Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)SA 104 – 105 CLE · CLE 54% → 70% +17CLE 54% → 70%+17 pts
- Q43:30Devin Vassell makes 27-foot three pointerSA 110 – 112 CLE · SA 10% → 25% +14SA 10% → 25%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML SA +600 / CLE -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 78.6%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -636
- SA +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.5 – 125.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1666 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −28 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | CLE crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +226 Elo | CLE 78.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 81.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 122.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 111.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.9 | Margin | +10.42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 120.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 110.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–23 | Road vs home | 30–51st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–39 | 45–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 41–25 |
| Underdog | 20–27 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 40–31 | 46–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–2 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.