Cleveland Cavaliers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Donovan ClinganPoints18
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–111
- Q42.1shot clock turnover122–111
- Q425.0Isaac Okoro defensive rebound122–111
- Q427.1Deni Avdija misses 26-foot three point jumper122–111
- Q435.0Anfernee Simons defensive rebound122–111
- Q437.2Isaac Okoro misses 26-foot three point jumper122–111
- Q41:02Sam Merrill defensive rebound122–111
- Q41:02Scoot Henderson misses running pullup jump shot122–111
- Q41:07Scoot Henderson defensive rebound122–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:13Ty Jerome makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 88 – 83 POR · CLE 67% → 77% +10CLE 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q411:18Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 92 – 89 POR · POR 19% → 29% +10POR 19% → 29%+10 pts
- Q411:09Dean Wade makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 95 – 89 POR · CLE 71% → 81% +10CLE 71% → 81%+10 pts
- Q47:38Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)CLE 104 – 102 POR · POR 20% → 33% +13POR 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q46:09Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 109 – 104 POR · CLE 68% → 81% +14CLE 68% → 81%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML CLE -245 / POR +200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.6%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -213
- POR +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.0 – 111.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1658 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | +34 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +82 Elo | CLE 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.3 | Points scored | 111.022nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 114.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.4 | Margin | −3.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 109.923rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3027–9 | Road vs home | 20–1718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+34 Elo- Deandre Ayton left calf strain−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–27 | 41–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–25 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 36–26 |
| Overs–unders | 45–26 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.