Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints30
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints23
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–116
- Q40.2Trail Blazers offensive team rebound129–116
- Q40.2Toumani Camara misses 26-foot three point jumper129–116
- Q42.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound129–116
- Q42.1Jayson Tatum blocks Anfernee Simons 's 4-foot driving layup129–116
- Q47.2Anfernee Simons defensive rebound129–116
- Q47.2Toumani Camara blocks Payton Pritchard 's 4-foot driving layup129–116
- Q420.2Celtics delay of game violation129–116
- Q420.2Torrey Craig enters the game for Al Horford129–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:34Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 43 – 40 POR · BOS 65% → 72% +7BOS 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q25:39Dalano Banton makes 28-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)BOS 43 – 43 POR · POR 28% → 35% +7POR 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q24:10Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 50 – 43 POR · BOS 74% → 80% +6BOS 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q33:08Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)BOS 89 – 82 POR · POR 11% → 18% +6POR 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q32:44Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 92 – 82 POR · BOS 82% → 89% +6BOS 82% → 89%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML BOS -250 / POR +210
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.1%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -221
- POR +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.0 – 106.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1695 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | +36 | BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −38 · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +86 Elo | BOS 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 110.922nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 113.916th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.6 | Margin | −3.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 109.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–7 | Road vs home | 20–1615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−36 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis return to competition reconditioning−38 Elo
Trail Blazers
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–38 | 41–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–36 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 36–25 |
| Overs–unders | 31–39 | 35–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.