Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints23
- Collin GillespieAssists10
- Kevin DurantRebounds6
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints25
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–124
- Q45.1Ryan Dunn personal take foul109–124
- Q410.0Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)109–124
- Q423.0shot clock turnover106–124
- Q448.1Collin Gillespie makes 5-foot two point shot106–124
- Q454.1Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)104–124
- Q41:12Rudy Gobert defensive rebound104–121
- Q41:15Royce O'Neale misses 25-foot three point jumper104–121
- Q41:22Cody Martin defensive rebound104–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:02Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)PHX 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 69% → 75% +5MIN 69% → 75%+5 pts
- Q110:13Julius Randle makes 24-foot three pointerPHX 2 – 6 MIN · MIN 75% → 79% +5MIN 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q211:16Donte DiVincenzo makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 21 – 30 MIN · MIN 82% → 86% +4MIN 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q24:12Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 38 – 44 MIN · PHX 14% → 19% +5PHX 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q23:55Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 38 – 47 MIN · MIN 81% → 86% +5MIN 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML PHX +260 / MIN -320
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8
- MIN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 78.9%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -274
- PHX +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 108.0 – 115.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1619 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +36 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +229 Elo | MIN 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 113.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 109.36th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +4.26th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 113.710th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 109.46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 99.222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 21–1614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–43 | 33–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 12–18 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 41–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–7 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Mar 2MIN 116 @ PHX 98Picked MIN 51%Hit
- Jan 29MIN 121 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Nov 17PHX 117 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Apr 28MIN 122 @ PHX 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 58%Hit
- Apr 26MIN 126 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Hit
- Apr 23PHX 93 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Hit
- Apr 20PHX 95 @ MIN 120PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 14PHX 125 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 65%Miss