Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints30
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Devin BookerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–102
- Q41.1Torrey Craig defensive rebound132–102
- Q46.0Monte Morris misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot132–102
- Q410.1shot clock turnover132–102
- Q435.0Monte Morris makes free throw 2 of 2132–102
- Q435.0Monte Morris makes free throw 1 of 2132–101
- Q435.0Torrey Craig shooting foul132–100
- Q444.0Torrey Craig makes 27-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)132–100
- Q456.1Damion Lee makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)129–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:45Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 3 – 0 PHX · BOS 62% → 68% +6BOS 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q14:24Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)BOS 26 – 22 PHX · BOS 64% → 70% +6BOS 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q13:06Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 31 – 24 PHX · BOS 70% → 75% +6BOS 70% → 75%+6 pts
- Q155.0Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 40 – 34 PHX · BOS 68% → 74% +6BOS 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q28:13Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 51 – 42 PHX · BOS 74% → 80% +6BOS 74% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -4.5
- ML BOS -185 / PHX +155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -166
- PHX +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.0 – 108.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1711 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −16 | BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum −34 · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +133 Elo | BOS 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 114.613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.8 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 115.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 116.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.1 | Pace | 98.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–7 | Road vs home | 23–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−35 Elo- Jayson Tatum sprained left ankle−34 Elo
Suns
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–38 | 30–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–36 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–40 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.