Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints25
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds8
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints20
- DeMar DeRozanAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–95
- Q415.1Isaac Jones makes 4-foot dunk (Mason Jones assists)113–95
- Q426.0Isaac Jones defensive rebound113–93
- Q430.0JD Davison misses 29-foot three point jumper113–93
- Q433.1Neemias Queta offensive rebound113–93
- Q437.0Jordan Walsh misses 24-foot three point jumper113–93
- Q443.1Neemias Queta defensive rebound113–93
- Q448.1Isaac Jones misses driving layup113–93
- Q41:01Neemias Queta makes 5-foot layup (JD Davison assists)113–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:32Markelle Fultz makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)BOS 39 – 41 SAC · SAC 37% → 45% +8SAC 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q26:21Baylor Scheierman makes 27-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 42 – 41 SAC · BOS 55% → 63% +8BOS 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q22:12Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 51 – 49 SAC · BOS 57% → 65% +8BOS 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q232.2Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 56 – 51 SAC · BOS 65% → 73% +8BOS 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q311:11Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 59 – 53 SAC · BOS 68% → 75% +8BOS 68% → 75%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -4.5
- ML BOS -190 / SAC +160
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -170
- SAC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 114.5 – 110.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1704 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −21 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +183 Elo | BOS 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 116.59th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 115.822nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.7 | Margin | +0.715th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 114.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.419th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–7 | Road vs home | 18–1721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–38 | 30–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–36 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–39 | 39–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.