Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints20
- Mike ConleyAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–119
- Q48.0Terrence Shannon Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover103–119
- Q415.1shot clock turnover103–119
- Q439.1Luka Garza makes 9-foot two point shot (Bones Hyland assists)103–119
- Q452.1Thomas Bryant makes free throw 2 of 2101–119
- Q452.1Thomas Bryant makes free throw 1 of 2101–118
- Q452.1Josh Minott shooting foul101–117
- Q41:08Josh Minott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)101–117
- Q41:21Jarace Walker makes 13-foot two point shot98–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:47Obi Toppin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIN 31 – 38 IND · IND 56% → 64% +8IND 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q26:11Obi Toppin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIN 33 – 41 IND · IND 59% → 66% +7IND 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q21:36Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMIN 44 – 52 IND · MIN 25% → 32% +7MIN 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q310:58Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)MIN 48 – 59 IND · IND 70% → 77% +7IND 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q38:43Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 57 – 65 IND · MIN 22% → 29% +8MIN 22% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -135 / IND +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- IND +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.5 – 114.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1635 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +18 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +43 Elo | MIN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 115.317th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 114.29th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 23–94th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–39 | 31–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–31 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.