Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Trendon WatfordPoints26
- Cameron JohnsonAssists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Myles TurnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–108
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound103–108
- Q40.0Cameron Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper103–108
- Q41.2Nets Full timeout103–108
- Q41.2Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2103–108
- Q41.2Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2103–107
- Q41.2Tyrese Martin personal take foul103–106
- Q43.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 1103–106
- Q43.0Tyrese Martin away from play foul103–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:19Tyrese Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)BKN 89 – 92 IND · BKN 10% → 21% +11BKN 10% → 21%+11 pts
- Q44:30Nic Claxton makes 1-foot dunk (Tyrese Martin assists)BKN 91 – 92 IND · BKN 21% → 32% +11BKN 21% → 32%+11 pts
- Q44:13Bennedict Mathurin makes 6-foot jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)BKN 91 – 94 IND · IND 68% → 79% +11IND 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q43:28Pascal Siakam makes driving layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)BKN 92 – 96 IND · IND 74% → 85% +11IND 74% → 85%+11 pts
- Q42:33Cameron Johnson makes driving layupBKN 94 – 97 IND · BKN 9% → 18% +10BKN 9% → 18%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -13.5
- ML BKN +475 / IND -650
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8.5
- IND 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- IND: Elo 80.3%, market 83.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -498
- BKN +498 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 103.5 – 117.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +14 | BKN: Missing D'Angelo Russell −24, Cam Thomas −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +245 Elo | IND 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 81.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 83.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 116.77th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 115.519th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.1 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 114.39th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.5 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 22–96th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−4 Elo- D'Angelo Russell sore right ankle−24 Elo
- Cam Thomas strained left hamstring−24 Elo
Pacers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–31 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–40 | 37–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–4 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.