Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Ziaire WilliamsPoints22
- D'Angelo RussellAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds14
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints28
- Pascal SiakamAssists5
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game99–105
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime99–105
- OT2.1Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound99–105
- OT6.1D'Angelo Russell misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot99–105
- OT13.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 299–105
- OT13.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 299–104
- OT13.1Keon Johnson personal take foul99–103
- OT16.1Nic Claxton traveling99–103
- OT18.0Nets Full timeout99–103
- OT18.0T.J. McConnell makes free throw 2 of 299–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:32Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumperBKN 84 – 84 IND · IND 34% → 57% +23IND 34% → 57%+23 pts
- Q41:42Ziaire Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)BKN 91 – 86 IND · BKN 67% → 90% +23BKN 67% → 90%+23 pts
- Q414.0Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 3 of 3BKN 91 – 91 IND · IND 24% → 52% +28IND 24% → 52%+28 pts
- OT2:11Bennedict Mathurin makes two point shotBKN 96 – 97 IND · IND 46% → 65% +19IND 46% → 65%+19 pts
- OT1:15Ziaire Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)BKN 99 – 98 IND · BKN 23% → 59% +36BKN 23% → 59%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- IND -7.5
- ML BKN +260 / IND -330
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5.5
- IND 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- IND: Elo 71.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -276
- BKN +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 107.0 – 114.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | −33 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +160 Elo | IND 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.5 | Points scored | 116.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.1 | Margin | +1.114th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 114.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.5 | Pace | 101.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 21–96th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−15 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−24 Elo
Pacers
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–31 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–39 | 37–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–3 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.