Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints18
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Kenrich WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–132
- Q49.1shot clock turnover111–132
- Q434.1Ben Sheppard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)111–132
- Q458.1Branden Carlson makes alley oop dunk shot (Kenrich Williams assists)108–132
- Q41:09shot clock turnover108–130
- Q41:09Pacers offensive team rebound108–130
- Q41:09Branden Carlson blocks Quenton Jackson 's 3-foot driving layup108–130
- Q41:31Jarace Walker defensive rebound108–130
- Q41:34Isaiah Joe misses 25-foot three point jumper108–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:22Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)IND 18 – 9 OKC · IND 38% → 44% +6IND 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q14:50Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)IND 21 – 14 OKC · OKC 53% → 60% +7OKC 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q11:34Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 27 – 24 OKC · IND 27% → 33% +6IND 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q11:17Isaiah Joe makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kenrich Williams assists)IND 27 – 27 OKC · OKC 67% → 73% +6OKC 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q24:26Cason Wallace makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)IND 42 – 44 OKC · OKC 68% → 75% +7OKC 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML IND +290 / OKC -380
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 76.1%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -309
- IND +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1759 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +28 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +201 Elo | OKC 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 119.44th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 106.72nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +12.71st of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 104.91st of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.59th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 31–51st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–40 | 49–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 46–24 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–1 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.