Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints20
- KJ SimpsonAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–141
- Q414.1Branden Carlson defensive rebound106–141
- Q417.2KJ Simpson misses 25-foot three point jumper106–141
- Q431.0Dillon Jones makes 19-foot step back jumpshot106–141
- Q437.0Thunder offensive team rebound106–139
- Q437.0Wendell Moore Jr. blocks Dillon Jones 's 2-foot driving layup106–139
- Q449.1Taj Gibson makes two point shot106–139
- Q450.1Taj Gibson offensive rebound104–139
- Q452.1Nick Smith Jr. misses 13-foot pullup jump shot104–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:44Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHA 2 – 7 OKC · OKC 94% → 95% +2OKC 94% → 95%+2 pts
- Q16:09Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 6 – 14 OKC · OKC 95% → 96% +2OKC 95% → 96%+2 pts
- Q38:35Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)CHA 62 – 73 OKC · CHA 2% → 3% +1CHA 2% → 3%+1 pts
- Q37:59DaQuan Jeffries makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)CHA 65 – 75 OKC · CHA 2% → 4% +2CHA 2% → 4%+2 pts
- Q37:44Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)CHA 65 – 78 OKC · OKC 96% → 98% +2OKC 96% → 98%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -20.5
- ML CHA +1200 / OKC -3000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 96%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -22.5
- OKC 97%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 97.5%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1258
- CHA +1258 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 100.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1290 | 1748 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −64 | +37 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +634 Elo | OKC 97.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 95.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 96.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.8 | Points scored | 119.24th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 106.92nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.7 | Margin | +12.31st of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.6 | Offense rating | 117.14th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 105.01st of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 28th of 307–26 | Road vs home | 29–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–35 | 45–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 43–24 |
| Underdog | 34–27 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–44 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–3 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.