New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints25
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–115
- Q46.1LaMelo Ball defensive rebound98–115
- Q49.1MarJon Beauchamp misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot98–115
- Q414.1shot clock turnover98–115
- Q438.1Anton Watson makes two point shot98–115
- Q438.1Anton Watson offensive rebound96–115
- Q439.0Tyler Kolek misses 4-foot two point shot96–115
- Q448.0Taj Gibson makes two point shot96–115
- Q448.0Taj Gibson offensive rebound96–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:09OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 47 – 57 CHA · NY 28% → 36% +8NY 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q310:33Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)NY 49 – 62 CHA · CHA 64% → 72% +8CHA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q310:13Miles McBride makes 25-foot three pointerNY 52 – 62 CHA · NY 27% → 35% +8NY 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q37:40Nick Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three pointer (Mark Williams assists)NY 58 – 69 CHA · CHA 61% → 70% +9CHA 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q35:41Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three pointer (Seth Curry assists)NY 64 – 72 CHA · CHA 53% → 63% +10CHA 53% → 63%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML NY -300 / CHA +240
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NY: Elo 69.1%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -255
- CHA +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.5 – 107.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1267 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −56 | +16 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +140 Elo | NY 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 105.728th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 113.715th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −8.028th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 105.429th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 10–2528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–37 | 33–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–29 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 33–27 |
| Overs–unders | 37–31 | 25–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–0 CHA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.