Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points27
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists7
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Rebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–125
- Q416.1Jay Huff defensive rebound104–125
- Q418.1Adam Flagler misses 17-foot step back jumpshot104–125
- Q434.0Kenrich Williams defensive rebound104–125
- Q436.1Jay Huff misses 26-foot three point jumper104–125
- Q444.1John Konchar defensive rebound104–125
- Q448.1Branden Carlson misses 24-foot three point jumper104–125
- Q455.1Adam Flagler offensive rebound104–125
- Q458.2Isaiah Joe misses 13-foot two point shot104–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:25Jay Huff makes 26-foot three pointer (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 92 – 96 OKC · MEM 12% → 20% +8MEM 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q47:41Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 99 – 97 OKC · MEM 32% → 47% +15MEM 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q47:20Isaiah Hartenstein makes tip shotMEM 99 – 99 OKC · OKC 53% → 63% +10OKC 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q46:36Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)MEM 99 – 102 OKC · OKC 62% → 77% +15OKC 62% → 77%+15 pts
- Q45:28Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MEM 99 – 107 OKC · OKC 86% → 94% +8OKC 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML MEM +380 / OKC -550
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10.5
- OKC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 84.7%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -406
- MEM +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.5 – 124.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1755 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +40 | MEM: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −24 | MEM crossed 1 time zone and OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +297 Elo | OKC 84.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 75.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.4 | Points scored | 119.34th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 106.82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 105.01st of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Pace | 101.59th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 30–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–34 | 48–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 28–20 | 45–24 |
| Underdog | 10–14 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 43–29 | 41–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–6 OKC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.