Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Alex CarusoAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints28
- Zach LaVineAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–105
- Q41.1shot clock turnover121–105
- Q425.2Doug McDermott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terry Taylor assists)121–105
- Q434.0Markelle Fultz defensive rebound121–102
- Q435.1Adam Flagler misses 17-foot step back jumpshot121–102
- Q449.0Doug McDermott makes 27-foot three point shot (Isaac Jones assists)121–102
- Q453.2Isaac Jones defensive rebound121–99
- Q456.0Kenrich Williams misses driving layup121–99
- Q41:10Doug McDermott makes 26-foot three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)121–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:07Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)OKC 2 – 5 SAC · SAC 26% → 31% +5SAC 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q110:52Chet Holmgren makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 5 – 5 SAC · OKC 68% → 74% +5OKC 68% → 74%+5 pts
- Q12:41Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 21 – 17 SAC · OKC 74% → 79% +5OKC 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q31:43Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 82 – 73 SAC · OKC 82% → 89% +7OKC 82% → 89%+7 pts
- Q31:19DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)OKC 82 – 76 SAC · SAC 11% → 18% +7SAC 11% → 18%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML OKC -340 / SAC +270
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12
- OKC 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 87.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -286
- SAC +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 118.5 – 110.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1752 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | −25 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +336 Elo | OKC 87.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 116.210th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.8 | Points allowed | 115.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 114.58th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–7 | Road vs home | 18–1821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–25 | 30–41 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–24 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–31 | 39–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–2 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.