Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints26
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–101
- Q40.0Clippers offensive team rebound103–101
- Q40.1Jaylin Williams enters the game for Cason Wallace103–101
- Q40.1Kawhi Leonard misses free throw 2 of 2103–101
- Q40.1Drew Eubanks enters the game for James Harden103–101
- Q40.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2103–101
- Q40.1Alex Caruso personal take foul103–100
- Q43.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2103–100
- Q43.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2102–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:49Kawhi Leonard makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (James Harden assists)OKC 92 – 93 LAC · LAC 44% → 56% +12LAC 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q44:48Kawhi Leonard makes 13-foot two point shotOKC 92 – 95 LAC · LAC 57% → 69% +12LAC 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q43:13Alex Caruso makes 3-foot two point shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 96 – 97 LAC · OKC 27% → 42% +15OKC 27% → 42%+15 pts
- Q42:19Kawhi Leonard makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (James Harden assists)OKC 97 – 99 LAC · LAC 50% → 68% +18LAC 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q41:54Alex Caruso makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 100 – 99 LAC · OKC 30% → 60% +30OKC 30% → 60%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -0.5
- ML OKC -110 / LAC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- LAC 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 38.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -100
- OKC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.0 – 113.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1748 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +62 | OKC: Usual rotation · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +79 Elo | OKC 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 111.921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 108.54th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.6 | Margin | +3.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 112.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 108.94th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–7 | Road vs home | 25–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–25 | 39–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 44–24 | 22–16 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–30 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–1 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.