Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints29
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- T.J. McConnellRebounds9
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints22
- Bub CarringtonAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game162–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter162–109
- Q414.1shot clock turnover162–109
- Q438.0Tristan Vukcevic lost ball turnover (Quenton Jackson steals)162–109
- Q445.0shot clock turnover162–109
- Q41:09Justin Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 1162–109
- Q41:09Ben Sheppard shooting foul162–108
- Q41:09Justin Champagnie makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot162–108
- Q41:22shot clock turnover162–106
- Q41:46Justin Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 1162–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:46Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 3 – 0 WSH · IND 84% → 88% +3IND 84% → 88%+3 pts
- Q111:17Andrew Nembhard makes 27-foot three pointer (Myles Turner assists)IND 6 – 2 WSH · IND 85% → 89% +3IND 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q19:20Alex Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)IND 11 – 9 WSH · WSH 11% → 14% +3WSH 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q19:11Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 14 – 9 WSH · IND 86% → 89% +3IND 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q14:38Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 26 – 20 WSH · IND 86% → 90% +3IND 86% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -12.5
- ML IND -800 / WSH +500
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7.5
- IND 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- IND: Elo 77.2%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -533
- WSH +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 123.5 – 111.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1281 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | +71 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +212 Elo | IND 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 108.727th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 120.430th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −11.730th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 105.030th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 116.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 103.24th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 7–2730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–40 | 31–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders | 38–34 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.