Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints21
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints23
- Bub CarringtonAssists6
- Bub CarringtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–104
- Q418.1Bub Carrington makes 20-foot pullup jump shot112–104
- Q429.2Colin Castleton 3 second turnover112–102
- Q447.0Colin Castleton defensive rebound112–102
- Q448.1Alex Sarr misses 24-foot three point jumper112–102
- Q41:05Jonathan Mogbo makes 6-foot two point shot (A.J. Lawson assists)112–102
- Q41:26Tristan Vukcevic makes dunk (AJ Johnson assists)110–102
- Q41:27AJ Johnson defensive rebound110–100
- Q41:30Jonathan Mogbo misses 24-foot three point jumper110–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:55Jamal Shead makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)TOR 73 – 72 WSH · TOR 40% → 51% +11TOR 40% → 51%+11 pts
- Q31:31Colin Castleton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 77 – 76 WSH · TOR 40% → 52% +12TOR 40% → 52%+12 pts
- Q410:45Immanuel Quickley makes 29-foot running pullup jump shot (A.J. Lawson assists)TOR 83 – 78 WSH · TOR 57% → 69% +12TOR 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q48:13Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 90 – 85 WSH · TOR 58% → 72% +14TOR 58% → 72%+14 pts
- Q46:26Jamison Battle makes 23-foot three point shot (Colin Castleton assists)TOR 95 – 87 WSH · TOR 75% → 86% +11TOR 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wizards 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -1.5
- ML TOR +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1.5
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.0 – 114.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1284 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | +47 | TOR: Missing RJ Barrett −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +44 Elo | WSH 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 108.727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 120.730th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.5 | Margin | −12.030th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 104.930th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 116.528th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.24th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–26 | Road vs home | 7–2630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−15 Elo- RJ Barrett rest−20 Elo
Wizards
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–28 | 30–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 37–23 | 30–39 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35 | 35–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.