Washington Wizards at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints25
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists4
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds10
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints31
- Tyler KolekAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–122
- Q41.0shot clock turnover103–122
- Q425.0Tristan Vukcevic makes layup (Colby Jones assists)103–122
- Q443.1MarJon Beauchamp makes dunk101–122
- Q445.2Jaylen Martin bad pass (MarJon Beauchamp steals)101–120
- Q456.1Precious Achiuwa makes two point shot (Tyler Kolek assists)101–120
- Q41:02Anton Watson defensive rebound101–118
- Q41:05AJ Johnson misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot101–118
- Q41:11Jaylen Martin defensive rebound101–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:26OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)WSH 2 – 3 NY · NY 87% → 90% +3NY 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q410:24Marcus Smart makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotWSH 83 – 92 NY · WSH 3% → 6% +3WSH 3% → 6%+3 pts
- Q410:08AJ Johnson makes 1-foot dunk (Colby Jones assists)WSH 85 – 92 NY · WSH 6% → 9% +3WSH 6% → 9%+3 pts
- Q49:14Marcus Smart makes 26-foot three pointer (AJ Johnson assists)WSH 88 – 92 NY · WSH 9% → 16% +7WSH 9% → 16%+7 pts
- Q48:55Cameron Payne makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 88 – 95 NY · NY 84% → 91% +7NY 84% → 91%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -15.5
- ML WSH +750 / NY -1400
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -8.5
- NY 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- NY: Elo 80.3%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -793
- WSH +793 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 105.0 – 120.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1289 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +37 | −50 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +244 Elo | NY 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 87.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 87.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 116.310th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 112.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.9 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.0 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–27 | Road vs home | 22–119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–39 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 27–30 |
| Underdog | 30–38 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 37–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–6 NY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.