Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints30
- Anthony BlackAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds12
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints19
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists8
- Alex SarrRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–105
- Q40.1Caleb Houstan defensive rebound120–105
- Q42.1Colby Jones misses free throw 1 of 1120–105
- Q42.1Jett Howard shooting foul120–105
- Q42.1Colby Jones makes driving layup (AJ Johnson assists)120–105
- Q413.1shot clock turnover120–103
- Q437.1Tristan Vukcevic makes driving layup (AJ Johnson assists)120–103
- Q446.0Colby Jones defensive rebound120–101
- Q448.1Anthony Black misses driving layup120–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:41Kyshawn George makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotORL 2 – 6 WSH · WSH 27% → 33% +5WSH 27% → 33%+5 pts
- Q110:21Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 5 – 6 WSH · ORL 67% → 73% +6ORL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q19:38Alex Sarr makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 7 – 9 WSH · WSH 24% → 29% +5WSH 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q18:23Alex Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)ORL 9 – 14 WSH · WSH 30% → 35% +6WSH 30% → 35%+6 pts
- Q12:58Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three pointerORL 28 – 24 WSH · ORL 75% → 80% +5ORL 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -8.5
- ML ORL -360 / WSH +280
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 60.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- ORL -297
- WSH +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.5 – 103.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1299 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +48 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | WSH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +75 Elo | ORL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 69.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.6 | Points scored | 108.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.1 | Points allowed | 120.630th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −11.930th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 105.030th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 116.528th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 103.24th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 7–2530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–36 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–17 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 13–19 | 30–37 |
| Overs–unders | 28–42 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–0 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.