Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints24
- Jordan PooleAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds10
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints22
- Quentin GrimesAssists4
- Justin EdwardsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–114
- Q41.1Adem Bona enters the game for Guerschon Yabusele119–114
- Q41.1Wizards defensive team rebound119–114
- Q41.1(00:01.7) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)119–114
- Q41.1Tristan Vukcevic blocks Guerschon Yabusele 's 2-foot driving layup119–114
- Q410.2Quentin Grimes defensive rebound119–114
- Q413.0Colby Jones misses free throw 2 of 2119–114
- Q413.0Guerschon Yabusele enters the game for Adem Bona119–114
- Q413.0Quentin Grimes enters the game for Ricky Council IV119–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:27Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 70 – 60 PHI · WSH 65% → 73% +8WSH 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q33:55Alex Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 83 – 71 PHI · WSH 76% → 83% +8WSH 76% → 83%+8 pts
- Q335.2Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point jumperWSH 94 – 82 PHI · WSH 79% → 87% +8WSH 79% → 87%+8 pts
- Q317.2Jared Butler makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ricky Council IV assists)WSH 94 – 85 PHI · PHI 13% → 20% +8PHI 13% → 20%+8 pts
- Q30.0Colby Jones makes 24-foot three pointer (Tristan Vukcevic assists)WSH 97 – 85 PHI · WSH 80% → 87% +8WSH 80% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML WSH +130 / PHI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -138
- WSH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.5 – 116.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1274 | 1353 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −62 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −40 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +3 Elo | PHI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 110.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 115.619th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.9 | Margin | −5.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 110.322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 115.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.3 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–28 | Road vs home | 12–2226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−62 Elo- Tyrese Maxey sprained right finger−40 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–41 | 26–46 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 30–39 | 20–28 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 43–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–5 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.