Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Justin EdwardsPoints19
- Chuma OkekeAssists4
- Chuma OkekeRebounds9
Pelicans- Karlo MatkovicPoints19
- Elfrid PaytonAssists14
- Kelly OlynykRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–112
- Q410.1Elfrid Payton defensive rebound99–112
- Q411.1Chuma Okeke misses 25-foot three point jumper99–112
- Q413.0Jared Butler offensive rebound99–112
- Q417.1Elfrid Payton blocks Jared Butler 's 3-foot driving floating jump shot99–112
- Q430.0Karlo Matkovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)99–112
- Q448.0Keion Brooks Jr. defensive rebound99–109
- Q450.0Ricky Council IV misses free throw 2 of 299–109
- Q450.0Ricky Council IV makes free throw 1 of 299–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:04Justin Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)PHI 67 – 65 NO · PHI 42% → 52% +10PHI 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q36:37Keion Brooks Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)PHI 67 – 68 NO · NO 48% → 58% +10NO 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q36:10Jordan Hawkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)PHI 69 – 71 NO · NO 51% → 61% +10NO 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q35:34Karlo Matkovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)PHI 69 – 74 NO · NO 61% → 71% +9NO 61% → 71%+9 pts
- Q33:51Antonio Reeves makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karlo Matkovic assists)PHI 73 – 79 NO · NO 65% → 74% +9NO 65% → 74%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NO -3.5
- ML PHI +125 / NO -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1
- NO 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NO: Elo 53.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NO -135
- PHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 111.5 – 115.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1362 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NO and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −83 | −94 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −42 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NO: Missing CJ McCollum −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +22 Elo | NO 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 110.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 119.527th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.5 | Margin | −8.929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 108.925th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 117.830th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–26 | Road vs home | 12–2326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−83 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back sprain−42 Elo
Pelicans
−94 Elo- CJ McCollum rest−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–45 | 30–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 20–27 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders | 43–28 | 41–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 0–3 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.