Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- LeBron JamesRebounds13
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists18
- Myles TurnerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–119
- Q40.0(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)120–119
- Q40.0LeBron James makes tip shot120–119
- Q41.0LeBron James offensive rebound118–119
- Q41.0Luka Doncic misses driving floating jump shot118–119
- Q48.0Luka Doncic defensive rebound118–119
- Q411.1Bennedict Mathurin misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot118–119
- Q433.0Jarace Walker defensive rebound118–119
- Q435.0Dorian Finney-Smith misses driving layup118–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:00Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)LAL 107 – 110 IND · IND 50% → 68% +19IND 50% → 68%+19 pts
- Q44:34Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAL 110 – 110 IND · LAL 31% → 50% +19LAL 31% → 50%+19 pts
- Q42:23Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 115 – 110 IND · LAL 68% → 88% +20LAL 68% → 88%+20 pts
- Q442.0Tyrese Haliburton makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotLAL 118 – 118 IND · IND 19% → 50% +31IND 19% → 50%+31 pts
- Q40.0LeBron James makes tip shotLAL 120 – 119 IND · LAL 0% → 100% +100LAL 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- IND -0.5
- ML LAL -115 / IND -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- LAL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 41.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -104
- IND +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 117.0 – 117.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +20 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +60 Elo | IND 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 115.217th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 114.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 24–94th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–31 | 32–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–19 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.