Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints32
- Franz WagnerAssists9
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–118
- Q45.1shot clock turnover106–118
- Q425.1Franz Wagner defensive rebound106–118
- Q429.1Anthony Black blocks Gabe Vincent 's 26-foot three point jumper106–118
- Q435.0Jordan Goodwin enters the game for LeBron James106–118
- Q435.0Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Luka Doncic106–118
- Q435.0Trey Jemison III enters the game for Rui Hachimura106–118
- Q435.0Dalton Knecht enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith106–118
- Q435.0Gabe Vincent enters the game for Austin Reaves106–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:14Franz Wagner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)LAL 62 – 61 ORL · ORL 32% → 40% +8ORL 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q38:08Cory Joseph makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 66 – 69 ORL · ORL 44% → 53% +10ORL 44% → 53%+10 pts
- Q36:29Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)LAL 70 – 74 ORL · ORL 47% → 57% +10ORL 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q35:59Wendell Carter Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)LAL 70 – 77 ORL · ORL 57% → 67% +10ORL 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q34:10Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 72 – 84 ORL · ORL 75% → 82% +8ORL 75% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML LAL -165 / ORL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 59.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -149
- ORL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.0 – 106.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −12 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +67 Elo | LAL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 104.830th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 106.11st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.318th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 106.828th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 108.13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.5 | Pace | 97.928th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 18–1720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–30 | 35–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–18 | 22–17 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 13–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 29–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–2 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.