Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints27
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists5
- Brice SensabaughRebounds10
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Myles TurnerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–140
- Q423.1Jarace Walker makes 6-foot layup (Ben Sheppard assists)112–140
- Q428.0Johnny Juzang bad pass (Ben Sheppard steals)112–138
- Q431.1Johnny Juzang offensive rebound112–138
- Q433.2Johnny Juzang misses 26-foot three point jumper112–138
- Q449.1Tony Bradley makes two point shot (Jarace Walker assists)112–138
- Q456.0Jarace Walker defensive rebound112–136
- Q458.2Isaiah Collier misses 27-foot three point jumper112–136
- Q41:10Johnny Furphy makes free throw 2 of 2112–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:15Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point shot (Obi Toppin assists)UTAH 57 – 47 IND · IND 56% → 64% +8IND 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q22:46Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)UTAH 59 – 50 IND · IND 58% → 66% +8IND 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q36:01Keyonte George makes 27-foot three pointerUTAH 78 – 77 IND · UTAH 15% → 22% +7UTAH 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q35:15Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot three point jumperUTAH 81 – 79 IND · UTAH 18% → 25% +8UTAH 18% → 25%+8 pts
- Q31:07Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)UTAH 92 – 96 IND · IND 80% → 87% +7IND 80% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- IND -17.5
- ML UTAH +1100 / IND -2500
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -12.5
- IND 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- IND: Elo 88.4%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- IND -1154
- UTAH +1154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.5 – 128.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1323 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +19 | UTAH: Missing Walker Kessler −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +353 Elo | IND 88.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 89.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 89.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.4 | Points scored | 117.17th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 115.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.9 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 114.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 307–31 | Road vs home | 26–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−23 Elo- Walker Kessler concussion protocol−13 Elo
Pacers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–38 | 33–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 19–29 |
| Underdog | 37–36 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 44–33 | 41–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.