Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints20
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds13
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints26
- Miles BridgesAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–110
- Q44.1KJ Simpson offensive rebound106–110
- Q46.1Tidjane Salaun misses free throw 2 of 2106–110
- Q46.1Tidjane Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2106–110
- Q46.1Brice Sensabaugh personal take foul106–109
- Q47.0Kyle Filipowski makes 1-foot two point shot106–109
- Q47.0Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound104–109
- Q49.1Keyonte George misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot104–109
- Q418.1Josh Green makes free throw 2 of 2104–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:12Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 78 – 78 CHA · UTAH 32% → 43% +11UTAH 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q410:34Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Seth Curry assists)UTAH 79 – 83 CHA · CHA 60% → 72% +12CHA 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q49:23KJ Simpson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)UTAH 83 – 88 CHA · CHA 65% → 77% +12CHA 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q43:40Kyle Filipowski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 97 – 101 CHA · UTAH 8% → 20% +12UTAH 8% → 20%+12 pts
- Q455.1Kyle Filipowski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 104 – 107 CHA · UTAH 1% → 12% +11UTAH 1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -4.5
- ML UTAH +155 / CHA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -2
- CHA 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.5 pts
- CHA: Elo 41.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -166
- UTAH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.0 – 113.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1267 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −51 | −46 | UTAH: Missing Collin Sexton −27, Walker Kessler −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | UTAH crossed 2 time zones and CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +57 Elo | UTAH 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.6 | Points scored | 105.528th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 113.715th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.6 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 105.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–29 | Road vs home | 11–2628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−51 Elo- Collin Sexton bone bruise−27 Elo
- Walker Kessler return to competition reconditioning−17 Elo
Hornets
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–37 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 36–35 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders | 43–32 | 28–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–2 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.